Badgers take No. 1 confidence into Midwest Regional
Ross Carlson celebrates his goal against Minnesota in the Final Five. |
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March 24, 2006
Wisconsin is the No. 1 seed at the Midwest Regional, which figures, because the Badgers are the No. 1 seed in nation among NCAA Division I college hockey teams. The Badgers, therefore, are favored to get past Bemidji State in Saturday's semifinals at Green Bay, Wis. Colorado College and Cornell tangle in the other game, and the Badgers stand as favorite to also win the Sunday final against that winner.
None of that will be easy, of course, but Wisconsin (26-10-3) seems to have overcome a late-season flat spot, although it would be a serious mistake to overlook Bemidji State (20-13-3), a team that is unranked but gained the NCAA's automatic berth for one team from College Hockey America, and a team that swept Minnesota-Duluth in Duluth, and also swept Minnesota State-Mankato.
Colorado College (24-15-2) came back from an upset loss to St. Cloud State in the first round of WCHA playoffs, so the Tigers are rested and ready to return to the ice based on a strong enough Pairwise computer rating. They face Cornell (21-8-4), a team from the perennially underrated ECAC but with an impressive record.
For Wisconsin, the key question is whether it has regained a full measure of confidence. Confidence is an enormous factor in hockey, as in all sports, but it has varying degrees of importance. Sometimes, a player or a team can overachieve by lacking confidence, and by being driven to prove superiority. In the case of the Badgers, confidence spells the difference between being the best team in the country, and a team with exposed vulnerability.
Wisconsin coach Mike Eaves knew he had a veteran team in a WCHA dominated by more youthful, rebuilding teams, and this is the first team where every player is an Eaves selection, knowing what is expected - make that demanded - by their disciplined, hard-driven coach.
With brilliant goaltending from Brian Elliott, a solid but mobile puck-handling defense led by all-WCHA first teamer Tom Gilbert, and a balanced and creative offense without a high-profile superstar, the Badgers tore into the season impressively. At the start, they were battle tested by overtimes in their first three games, beating St. Lawrence 3-2, then losing to St. Lawrence 2-1, and then tyhing 2-2.
A 1-1-1 start was at best inauspicious, but at that point the Badgers took flight, soaring to a run of 18-1-1 and what looked like a stranglehold on the WCHA title and the No. 1 rank in the nation. The only loss was 4-2 to Michigan Tech, which the Badgers overturned with a 7-0 rout the next night. That opening 19-2-2 run carried through January 14 when they swept 3-2 and 9-1 victories at CC.
In that stretch, the Badgers were spectacular to watch, sweeping from their end with quick-passing attacks, and, when passing lanes were blocked, laying passes ahead where teammates would speed to scoop up the pucks at full flight.
Suddenly, though, Elliott injured his knee in practice. The Badgers were at home against Denver, and possibly the only flaw in Eaves' coaching was exposed. Freshman goaltender Shane Connelly had not played a game, and was thrust into the nets. Denver won 1-0, and followed it up with a 4-2 victory. Minnesota - a team the Badgers had swept 4-3, 4-0 in Minneapolis - came in next and also swept the Badgers in Madison, 5-4 and 3-1. Connelly was not the problem in those four straight losses, the problem was that the team played differently - as if subconsciously deciding it had to pull back from its free-wheeling attack to a circle-the-wagons defensive caution.
"No question," said Eaves. "Elliott went out, and our whole team dynamic changed."
Coinciding with Wisconsin's sudden struggle, Minnesota went on a late-season tear, led by the explosive scoring of Ryan Potulny, and a defensive corps that gained overnight confidence from a long video lesson on the busride to North Dakota. The Gopher defense, which had been inept at best in two home losses to Wisconsin, learned from a video of the 2002 Gopher NCAA championship game and suddenly played with the assurance of Jordan Leopold, Keith Ballard and Paul Martin from that title team. Confidence carried through, and the Gophers won the WCHA regular season title.
The title became less important than getting everything back in order to Eaves. The Badgers regrouped and appeared back in the groove in a 7-2 romp at Duluth, but the pesky UMD Bulldogs came back to win 4-1 the next night, and the uncertainty returned. The regular season ended with Elliott returning to the nets for a troubling 4-4 tie with Michigan Tech, and two shocking losses, 6-4 and 7-3, at Mankato, before sweeping St. Cloud State.
So the team that started 19-2-2 finished 5-7-1 in the regular season. Elliott seemed to get back on track with 4-1, 1-0 sweep against Tech in the WCHA playoff first round, but at the Final Five, Wisconsin ran into a red-hot North Dakota team, and after the Badgers took an early 2-0 lead, the Sioux came back to win 4-3 in the semifinals.
At that point, Wisconsin went into the third-place game with that question still hanging overhead. But the foe, in Saint Paul, was Minnesota, a team that always makes the Badgers see red, so to speak. Against the No. 1 natiionally ranked Gophers, Elliott was perfect, and the Badgers cruised to a remarkably easy 4-0 victory.
The Wisconsin offense free-wheeled, and the likes of Joe Pavelski, Robbie Earl, Ross Carlson and Adam Burish sparked a solid performance by all four lines, while the defense broke out smoothly and Elliott notched his third shutout in the last six games. Wisconsin gave up only six goals in those last six games - four of them to North Dakota in the WCHA semifinals. The question now remains whether that intensity that returned in full measure against Minnesota can be counted on the rest of the way.
"The intensity of the rivalry depends on how good the teams are," said Eaves. "That intensity is going to be there all the time against Minnesota because of the rivalry, but it goes to a high level this year, because both teams are good.
"It helped, jumping out to a 2-nil lead," said Eaves. Yes, he REALLY said "2-nil." Eaves also was careful not to put too much emphasis on the game, even though the nation's No. 1 seed was hanging in the balance.
"They're an up-tempo team, and we were able to control the tempo," added Eaves. "Our No. 1 goal all year has been to get to Milwaukee to play in the NCAA Frozen Four. "The No. 1 team is whoever wins the NCAA championship."
Colorado College, still armed with the 1-2 scoring tandem of Brett Sterling and Marty Sertich, which carried the Tigers to the Frozen Four last year, got voted back into the NCAA field by the vagaries of the NCAA's computer system. That system has been refined to follow the coaches' insistence on removing all subjectivity, but it is not without flaws. For example, if a team focuses on league play and finishes second, should there be a computer system that can declare four of its league rivals ahead of it?
Denver finished in a second-place tie with Wisconsin in the WCHA season, after a ferocious three-way battle with the two of them and Minnesota for the league title. Denver was upset at home by Minnesota-Duluth in the WCHA first round playoffs - just as CC was beaten in Colorado Springs by St. Cloud State.
Still, within the WCHA, Denver's power was unquestioned. The Pioneers had their problems with Minnesota, going 0-3-1, but they were 2-0 with Wisconsin, split 2-2 with North Dakota, and went 3-0-1 against Colorado College, for a 7-5-1 mark against the four WCHA teams that were voted into the NCAA. But Denver had gone 4-7 in nonconference games, including losses to Ferris State and Princeton.
That led the NCAA computations to over-rule the WCHA standings. Despite finishing second in the WCHA, the two-time defending national champion Pioneers ranked fifth among league teams via the computer, so Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Colorado College advanced, while Denver was bumped out of the 16 selected teams.
Ironically, Denver benefited by the same system that bit it this year when the Pioneers lost in the first round of league playoffs two years ago, got voted into the NCAA field, and won the championship. Colorado College could follow that same formula to victory this year. But that will require a truly sterling performance in a Midwest Regional where a confident Wisconsin Badgers outfit is the clearcut favorite.
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